Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 3.635763 3.941099 4.276088 4.673971 5.137822 5.666804 6.323581
2025-02-09 3.261033 3.671118 4.151851 4.767914 5.553522 6.547809 7.948405
2025-02-16 2.965728 3.417334 3.969322 4.713167 5.723203 7.105272 9.263489
2025-02-23 2.756959 3.232849 3.833374 4.675417 5.879504 7.642678 10.674619
2025-03-02 2.589439 3.078708 3.712088 4.629708 6.000988 8.134184 12.156302
2025-03-09 2.451547 2.948449 3.605656 4.584902 6.106467 8.609262 13.776538
2025-03-16 2.346602 2.852096 3.534057 4.577457 6.261189 9.191135 15.863148
2025-03-23 2.280248 2.801772 3.520068 4.650496 6.551806 10.080280 19.149871
2025-03-30 2.175922 2.691635 3.411144 4.563900 6.555616 10.415835 21.251301
2025-04-06 2.081773 2.590130 3.307335 4.474541 6.540202 10.706630 23.452817
2025-04-13 1.979058 2.471298 3.170667 4.320244 6.386448 10.665174 24.562596
2025-04-20 1.941734 2.443731 3.167897 4.384479 6.647829 11.626949 30.379181
2025-04-27 1.928206 2.450596 3.218800 4.546069 7.130570 13.315173 42.809822
2025-05-04 1.899412 2.433295 3.230860 4.641501 7.498246 14.878160 60.356341
2025-05-11 1.840792 2.368594 3.164002 4.589501 7.542258 15.529219 74.477857
2025-05-18 1.789813 2.313097 3.108619 4.553408 7.616186 16.314418 96.378922
2025-05-25 1.740826 2.258542 3.051751 4.509670 7.666292 17.053085 127.652504
2025-06-01 1.695223 2.207333 2.997679 4.466782 7.712472 17.812093 177.829491
2025-06-08 1.659334 2.169628 2.963831 4.459654 7.844509 18.981578 304.313369
2025-06-15 1.639800 2.156333 2.969597 4.529564 8.181483 21.237481 1268.342515
2025-06-22 1.594014 2.100379 2.900935 4.446675 8.110596 21.631189 4452.034678
2025-06-29 1.550113 2.046089 2.833010 4.361094 8.022613 21.920450 NaN
2025-07-06 1.497356 1.976504 2.736765 4.213205 7.751558 21.187664 NaN